Daily Forex Analysis November 8, 2012

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Fundamental Part

Today´s first news will be released at 12:00 am GMT when Bank of England is going to publish figures about asset purchase facility. It is expected it will remain at £375,000 billion just like in a previous survey.

Also at the same time BoE will report official bank rate which is expected to hold at 0.50 percent as it is for a last few months. Both news will have a high impact on the sterling.

Also ECB will release numbers about minimum bid rate at 12:45 am GMT. It will have a high impact on the euro and it is expected rate will remain at 0.75 percent just like in a previous month.

Next at 1:30 pm GMT Bureau of Economic Analysis will report a survey about trade balance in the US. This high impact news is expected to end in a deficit. Analysts are expecting deterioration in deficit from $44.2 to $44.9 billion.

And last news will be released also at 1:30 pm GMT but by Department of Labor which will publish weekly data about unemployment claims. It is expected increase in unemployment from 363,000 to 367,000 people. Also high impact on the dollar can be awaited.


 

Technical Part

The EURUSD analysis

081112eurusd

The Alligator is suggesting consolidation and Stochastic is indicating downside move holding in the oversold zone. Strong downtrend is being indicated by Aroon and MACD holding below zero line suggests that downward move isn´t complete.

Sideway moving Bollinger bands and price below SMA suggests further consolidation. RSI in the seller´s zone indicating decline which confirms CCI also in the seller´s zone but further rise will indicate buy signal.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

Price is holding below daily pivot at 1.2788 and price has now declined below 1.2756 which indicates that consolidation is probably complete and decline towards support 1.2702 can be expected. Break below this level will confirm next objective at 1.2649 support. Also if price rises towards daily pivot but not break above it, consolidation will be underway.

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The USDJPY analysis

081112usdjpy

The Alligator is indicating possible rebound which is supported by Stochastic bouncing from oversold zone. Strong downtrend is indicating Aroon and MACD suggests that bottom has been formed and rise can be awaited.

Narrowing Bollinger bands and price below SMA are suggesting rebound and possible rise. RSI in the seller´s zone suggesting downside move while CCI is indicating buy signal entering buyer´s zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

Price re-tested last low and now it seems it is rebounding from 79.820 support. According to this scenario price will test daily pivot at 80.024 and sustained rise will focus on the 80.205 resistance. But it can be also another correction after which price falls towards 79.690 support or even lower at 79.612 support.

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The GBPUSD analysis

081112gbpusd

Sideway moving Alligator is indicating consolidation while Stochastic suggests possible decline. According to the Aroon we can expect downtrend but uptrend could also bounce. MACD holding close to zero line is indicating sideways movement.

Sideway moving Bollinger bands and price below SMA are indicating consolidation which is also confirmed by RSI. CCI indicated buy signal and entered buyer´s zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

Price wasn´t able to break above daily pivot at 1.5989 and is still holding above 1.5966 support suggesting further rise. Decline below this level will confirm target at support 1.5937. But if price rises and re-test daily pivot, sustained rise will approach resistance at 1.6006.

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The USDCHF analysis

081112usdchf

The Alligator is suggesting further rise and it is confirmed by Stochastic holding in the overbought zone. Strong uptrend is being indicated by Aroon and MAC holding above zero line still indicating upward move.

Sideway moving Bollinger bands and price above SMA are suggesting possible rise. RSI in the buyer´s zone suggesting rise and CCI indicated sell signal but it is in the buyer´s zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bullish opportunity.

Price was able to hold above daily pivot at 0.9436 and was limited at 0.9459 resistance indicating consolidation. If price gains momentum and breaks above resistance it will focus on next objective at 0.9489. But if price rebounds and falls below daily pivot it will negate previous conclusions and target will be at 0.9418 support.

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Daily Forex Analysis November 13, 2012


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Fundamental Part First news for today will be published at 9:30 am GMT when Office for National Statistics will release...

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