Daily Forex Analysis November 13, 2012

Fundamental Part

First news for today will be published at 9:30 am GMT when Office for National Statistics will release figures about CPI in the UK. It is expected slight increase from 2.2 to 2.3 percent. Also it will have a high impact on the sterling.

At 10:00 am GMT ZEW will report data about German economic sentiment which will have a high impact on the euro. Previous figures showed pessimism when indicator fell by 11.5 points. But today improvement to minus 9.9 points can be expected despite pessimism will be in favor.

At the same time the same bureau will publish number about economic sentiment in the Eurozone. Previous figures showed decline by 1.4 points but analysts are awaiting slight rise by 0.2 points. Also medium impact on the euro can be awaited.

Last news for today will be reported at 7:00 pm GMT when Department of the Treasury release figures about federal budget balance. It is expected deficit at $113.5 billion compared to surplus at $75.0 billion in a previous month. Medium impact on the dollar can be awaited.


 

Technical Part

The EURUSD analysis

131112eurusd

The Alligator is suggesting downward move after a consolidation. Stochastic holding in the oversold zone is suggesting downside move and it is confirmed by Aroon indicating strong downtrend. MACD rebounded from zero line suggesting new low will be formed.

Expanding Bollinger bands and price below SMA are indicating decline and RSI in the oversold zone is suggesting further fall. Despite CCI has indicated buy signal it is still in the seller´s zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

After price rebounded from daily pivot at 1.2715 it has reached support at 1.2674. If price doesn´t rebound, after testing this level price will focus on the next target at 1.2651 support. But rebound from first support will re-test former support at 1.2693 and possible daily pivot. Deeper decline towards 1.2605 hasn´t been excluded.

131112eurusd2


 

The USDJPY analysis

131112usdjpy

The Alligator is indicating decline which is supported by Stochastic reaching oversold zone. Strong downtrend is being indicated by Aroon and MACD falling below zero line confirm deeper decline.

Expanding Bollinger bands and price blow SMA are indicating downside movement. RSI reaching border of oversold zone suggests strong decline and also it is supported by CCI moving in oversold zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

After price declined below daily pivot at 79.446 it has soon reached support at 79.242 and next target can be awaited at 79.130 support. If price breaks below this level price could reach support 78.743 where bottom could be formed. But rebound from second support will confirm that downward move is complete and price will focus on re-testing former support at 79.334.

131112usdjpy2


 

The GBPUSD analysis

131112gbpusd

The Alligator is suggesting slight decline of the GBPUSD. Stochastic is confirming downside move and also Aroon indicates strong downtrend. MACD bouncing from zero line suggesting another lower low could be formed.

Falling Bollinger bands and price below SMA are indicating decline. RSI in the seller´s zone and CCI indicating sell signal is suggesting deeper decline.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bearish opportunity.

Price is falling towards support at 1.5851 and if price rebounds from this level and will be limited by daily pivot at 1.5882 from above. But break below support will confirm deeper decline towards 1.5832 support. Also sustained rise above daily pivot will approach resistance at 1.5900.

131112gbpusd2


 

The USDCHF analysis

131112usdchf

The Alligator is rising, suggesting further increase just like Stochastic moving in the overbought zone. Strong uptrend is being indicated by Aroon and MACD is bouncing from zero line indicating upward move.

Expanding Bollinger bands and price above SMA are indicating upside movement. RSI in the overbought zone suggest strong rise. CCI indicated sell signal but it is holding in the buyer´s zone.

According to the previous events the market is suggesting bullish opportunity.

Price has almost reached resistance at 0.9508 and break above this level approach next target at 0.9521 resistance. But if price rebounds from first resistance it will focus on former resistance at 0.9493 and possibly on daily pivot at 0.9480. If price falls below this level it will be probably limited by 0.9474 support and consolidation will be in favor.

131112usdchf2

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Daily Forex Analysis November 13, 2012


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